Everyone wants to know who everyone else is betting on at PA online sportsbooks. Whether it’s a friend, a group of sharps, or everyone it is all information that bettors want. Luckily, DraftKings Sportsbook provides us with that information each week.
The key is to find or isolate certain NFL public bets that could be based on “recency bias” or potential trap games for sports bettors. To be clear, simply fading the public is not a magic method for winning long term. Monitoring NFL public bets or consensus picks should part of your overall strategy, not your only reason for backing a team.
Let’s take a look at the NFL Week 14 Public Betting numbers on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Notable Games with Spread Consensus (Handle)
Teams | Spread | % Spread Handle | % Spread Bets |
Seahawks | -1 | 93% | 91% |
Ravens | -5.5 | 92% | 87% |
Cowboys | -3 | 91% | 86% |
Steelers | -2.5 | 91% | 85% |
49ers | 2.5 | 88% | 78% |
Chargers | -3 | 86% | 66% |
Week 14 is set to be a very important one for bettors, as there are a plethora of games with close spreads with playoff implications.
Amongst the top six games in terms of consensus on the spread, four of them have handles of over 90% of the money. Overall, there are six teams that are receiving over 86% of the bets, but only one underdog in the San Francisco 49ers.
That means there are five favorites, but the range is only from -1 (Seahawks) to -5.5 (Ravens).
Seattle Seahawks 93%
The Seahawks will travel to Los Angeles to take on the Rams in a divisional matchup, but Seattle is clearly the better team at 10-2, as the Rams are 7-5 and have struggled offensively in games against average to above average opponents. It is no surprise that the Seahawks are favored on the road, but only being a one-point favorite means it’s quite close to an even moneyline bet.
That makes a team at 10-2 a very attractive bet, and the public has reacted as such.
Baltimore Ravens 92%
The Ravens are the favorites to win the Super Bowl now, and having beat the Patriots and the 49ers in recent weeks they are a very hot team to bet on. At -5.5 against the Buffalo Bills, bettors clearly think the Ravens will finish Week 14 in the W column and improve to 11-2 with their ninth straight win.
The Bills have been by far the cheapest team to bet on with their record (9-3), and they are the best team in the NFL ATS this season (8-3-1). Regardless, bettors feel the Bills are not close to the Ravens as far as football teams go, as 92% of bettors have sided with Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens.
Dallas Cowboys 91%
The Cowboys are only three-point favorites against the Chicago Bears this week, which makes them very attractive to sports bettors everywhere. That has come to light, given their 91% number on the handle of this game, with just 9% of bettors liking the Bears +3.
Mitchell Trubisky against Dak Prescott is likely the key reason bettors are on the Cowboys in Week 14, paired with the fact that the Bears are 3-9 ATS in 2019.
Notable Games with Spread Consensus (Bets)
Teams | Spread | % Spread Handle | % Spread Bets |
Seahawks | -1 | 93% | 91% |
Ravens | -5.5 | 92% | 87% |
Cowboys | -3 | 91% | 86% |
Steelers | -2.5 | 91% | 85% |
The percentage of bets compared to handle is quite similar this week, which means most bettors agree regardless of bankroll.
The top four in terms of percentage of bets are all favorites, and the top underdog in terms of receiving the lion’s share of the bets is the Miami Dolphins at +5.
The Underdogs
There are five underdogs that have the majority of the bets and handles on them this week.
Teams | Spread | % Spread Handle | % Spread Bets |
49ers | 2.5 | 88% | 78% |
Dolphins | 5 | 77% | 80% |
Chiefs | 3 | 76% | 80% |
Bengals | 8.5 | 65% | 74% |
Giants | 9.5 | 59% | 56% |
Colts | 3 | 56% | 40% |
Lions | 12.5 | 46% | 73% |
The 49ers, Dolphins, Chiefs, Bengals, Giants, and Colts all have the majority of the handle, but the Colts don’t have the majority of the bets at just 40%.
The Lions have 73% of the bets, but only 46% of the betting handle.
The three underdogs with the large majority of the handle are the 49ers +2.5 @ the Saints, the Dolphins +5 @ the Jets, and the Chiefs +3 @ the Patriots.
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